The global economic scenario is constantly changing, and the relationship between the US dollar (USD) and the Brazilian real (BRL) reflects not only economic factors, but also the social moment, political and geopolitical of each country.

At the moment, The dollar has been undervaluation of a set of factors: expectations of interest rates in interest rates in the USA, signs of economic slowdown and global commercial tensions. At the same time, The Real presents relative stability, sustained by agricultural export flow, high of commodities and a fiscal environment that, though challenging, has received market attention.

Social and political context

• USA: November presidential elections 2025 increase political uncertainty. Post-election tax and monetary policies can directly influence the trajectory of the dollar. Furthermore, The deceleration in GDP growth and the expectation of gradual interest cuts by the Federal Reserve creates room for a less valued dollar in the short term.

• Brazil: The country faces tax challenges, but it benefits from commodity revenues and a strong agricultural market. The economic agenda, marked by debates on tax and administrative reforms, can generate volatility in the exchange rate, especially if there are political noises.

Relevant global factors

1. Interest rates - If the Fed reduces interest until the end of the year, The dollar tends to lose strength against emerging coins, including the real.

2. International trade - The global appetite for Brazilian agricultural commodities and minerals can boost BRL.

3. Geopolitical tensions - Conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East keep investors attentive and can generate escape to assets considered safer, temporarily strengthening the dollar.

4. Capital flow - The entry of foreign investments in Brazil, especially in the infrastructure and energy sector, tends to support local currency.

Trends for the next 6 Months

• USD/BRL should oscillate between R$ 5,00 e R$ 5,25, with the possibility of testing below R $ 5,00 If the external scenario favor emerging coins and Brazilian internal conditions remain stable.

• Risks: Political noises in Brazil, frustration with the reform agenda or fiscal deterioration can take the exchange back to the R $ 5,30 – R$ 5,40.

• Opportunities: Investors who work in import/export operations should be aware of the Real Valuation windows to plan strategic transactions.

Conclusion

The behavior of the dollar against the real in the coming months will strongly depend on federal reserve decisions, political progress in Brazil and global demand for commodities. In a world of constant volatility, Quality information and strategic financial planning will be the keys to take advantage of the opportunities that arise.